How Many Will We Be In 2100?

Most of our current problems, such as carbon emission, food, water, energy, etc. on a global scale are related to the world population. When the human population increases, so do the consumption, leading to a decline in the number of resources per person. So, what will happen at the end of the 21st century?

In 1989, the United Nations declared July 11 as the World Population Day in order to draw attention to the importance of population issues. Each year on this date, various studies are carried out focusing on family planning, gender equality, women’s health, poverty, and related human rights issues as well as the socioeconomic, environmental, and developmental impacts of population growth. Governments, country leaders, policymakers, and institutions working for unionisation receive calls about the importance of the issue.

While it took hundreds of thousands of years for the human population to reach 1 billion, this number doubled in only 200 years. We exceeded 7 billion thresholds in 2011, currently on our way up to 7.7 billion people. According to the United Nations, we will reach 8.5 in 2030, 9.7 in 2050, and 10.9 billion in 2100, at the end of the century.

After World War II, the human population had a rapid increase facilitated by the relief of surviving a tough period, and the increased production of all kinds thanks to fossil fuels and technology, and thus all resources becoming more accessible. However, fertility is currently on a decline. In the 1970s, while each woman had an average of 4.5 children, the global fertility rate dropped down to 2.5 children per woman in 2015. On the other hand, the average human life increased from 64.6 years in the 1990s to 72.6 years in 2019.

According to scientists, the decline in fertility is related to the fact that women are now receiving a better education, have a higher share in business life, and those birth control methods became widespread. Of course, with reduced fertility and prolonged human life, the population able to have children is also rapidly aging.

While people worry about the increasing world population, a new article published in Lancet claims that we will face an opposite problem in the rest of the century: a rapidly falling population and a number of social, economic, and political disadvantages resulting from it.

The study suggests that population growth will begin to decline in 2050, reaching a peak with 9.7 billion in 2064, and a decrease to 8.8 billion in 2100 (almost 2 billion less than previous estimates). By this date, the population of 23 countries will fall to half the present numbers. Japan, Spain, Portugal and Thailand are among the countries expected to experience the sharpest decrease. The global fecundity rate is also expected to drop from 2.37 in 2017 to 1.66 at the end of the century. For the survival of a community of any species, the average fecundity rate must be at least 2.1.

Although India will experience a general decline, it will take the lead from China with about 1.1 billion. Whereas China, currently the most crowded country in the world with a population of 1.4 billion, will experience a population decline to 732 million in 2100 –although it will likely stay among the top three countries with the highest population.

On the other hand, the population growth will increase rapidly especially in Sub-Saharan African countries. Nigeria will be the second-most populous country in the world, with 791 million citizens. Populations of Chad and Sudan will increase by over 600%. But even if the population of these countries increase until 2100, a fall afterwards is inevitable because the fecundity rate is estimated to drop from 4.6 to 1.7 even in Sub-Saharan countries. Currently, women in Nigeria have been giving birth to an average of 7 children.

Although a population decline sounds like a good opportunity for our planet, whose resources are rapidly depleting, scientists believe that the positive developments on the environment will lose effect due to problems that will arise as a result of rapid aging of the world population. According to estimates, the population over the age of 65 will be 2.37 billion in 2100, while the population under 20 will be 1.7 billion.  in 2100. Dr. Christopher Murray from the University of Washington, one of the authors of the research, states that this will lead to an enormous social change. “Who pays tax in a massively aged world? Who pays for healthcare for the elderly? Who looks after the elderly?” Basically, countries’ abilities to generate the wealth needed to fund social support and health care for the elderly will take a major blow.

Nonetheless, scientists advice all the countries of the world to review their future plans. According to Professor Stein Emil Vollset, first author of the paper, “The societal, economic, and geopolitical power implications of our predictions are substantial. In particular, our findings suggest that the decline in the numbers of working-age adults alone will reduce GDP growth rates that could result in major shifts in global economic power by the century’s end. Responding to population decline is likely to become an overriding policy concern in many nations.”

By 2100, the influence of Africa and the Arab World will probably strengthen, while the population and the influence of Europe and Asia will weaken, leading to the spawning of a multi-polar power balance dominated by India, China, Nigeria, and the USA. For this reason, there is an emphasis on the need to reconsider future plans at the country and regional scale.

Researchers claim that countries may need to create large-scale and free immigration programs in order to eliminate the problems population decline will bring, as well as to maintain economic growth and geopolitical security. However, it is also likely to see policies that will put serious pressure on family planning and women’s birth control rights, and countries must take solid steps to prevent the consequences of such policies to avoid social inequalities. The world will also need to avoid racist approaches that carry the risk of preventing the circulation of the population via global immigration, which will provide the necessary workforce to maintain the economic power of countries. There will be a need for egalitarian global immigration policy with the cooperation of all countries, rich or poor.

Naturally, the researchers emphasize that these are estimates based on historical data, which may not always accurately reflect future trends. Factors that are not taken into account while creating population models can lead to different reflections in birth, death, and migration rates. For example, over half a million people losing their lives due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the difficulties faced by local and national health systems can be considered as one of these factors. However, the researchers also agree that the deaths caused by the coronavirus outbreak will not have a serious impact on the long-term projections for the global population. Moreover, the United Nations estimates that the curfews continuing for 6 months, resulting in a total of 47 million women from low- and middle-income countries being unable to access modern birth control methods, may cause 7 million unwanted births.

To learn more about UNFPA (United Nations Population Fund) established by the United Nations by predicting social, economic and political issues brought about by population growth, the World Population Day, and to be informed about the studies, you can visit this address.